Pauline Hanson delivered her maiden parliamentary speech in 1996, claiming that Australia was “being swamped by Asians.”
Nearly thirty years on, the movement she founded is experiencing its most dramatic resurgence since its late-1990s peak, and this time, the mainstream right may not be able to contain it.
Origins and ideology
Hanson’s One Nation was founded in 1997, following her expulsion from the Liberal Party. Its early platform combined economic protectionism and right-wing grievance into a potent electoral cocktail.
In its early years, One Nation’s policies were synonymous with opposition to affirmative action for Aboriginal communities, resistance to immigration from Asian countries and economic protectionism.
Its appeal was concentrated among working-class white Australians in regional Queensland and New South Wales who felt abandoned by both major parties.
Early success
The party enjoyed spectacular early success, winning 11 seats in the 1998 Queensland state election, before collapsing under internal feuding, legal troubles for Hanson herself, and deliberate if informal tactical voting by the mainstream parties. For over a decade, One Nation was written off as a spent force.
Hanson returned as leader ahead of the 2016 federal election, and the party won four Senate seats.
It had found new, familiar grievances to mobilise: climate denial, anti-Islam sentiment, and hostility to what it characterised as an out-of-touch metropolitan elite.
Its platform evolved to include opposition to any treaty with Aboriginal Australians, restrictions on foreign land ownership, and withdrawal from the UN Refugee Convention.
Populist checklist
Today, One Nation’s programme reads like a checklist of the global populist radical right. In March 2025, Hanson announced the party wants Australia to leave the United Nations, the World Health Organization, and the World Economic Forum, cut funding for the National Disability Insurance Scheme, and abolish the National Indigenous Australians Agency and the Department of Climate Change.
The party remains stridently anti-abortion and dismisses the scientific consensus on climate change.
On immigration One Nation has hardened its positions. It’s the core issue which has been driving support for the party. Research published last year found that among One Nation voters surveyed, 90% believed immigration levels had gone “too far” or “much too far,” with around 70% choosing “much too far.”
New surge
At the May 2025 federal election, One Nation recorded a primary vote of 6.4%. Since then, support has surged dramatically, with polls showing it sitting between 11% and 14%. More alarmingly for the mainstream right, approximately one in five who voted for the Coalition (an alliance of opposition conservative parties) in the 2025 federal election now say they intend to vote for One Nation.
The scale of Labor’s 2025 victory and the Coalition’s subsequent shift toward the centre has opened up space for Australia’s populist right. One Nation is occupying that space.
Among its voters, 78% believe the next generation will have a worse life than their parents, a dramatically more pessimistic figure than that recorded for any other party’s supporters.
Real threat
The electoral threat is now real and measurable. Research published in late 2025 projected that One Nation could win 12 House of Representatives seats if an election were held immediately, making it the third largest party in parliament.
A January 2026 poll placed One Nation at 23% of the primary vote, equal to the Coalition and behind only Labor.
Former National Party leader Barnaby Joyce has now formally joined One Nation, becoming its sole member in the House of Representatives and announcing his intention to run as a One Nation Senate candidate at the next election.
The party has also rebranded, dropping “Pauline Hanson’s” from its official name in a bid to appear less personality-dependent.
However, One Nation has consistently underperformed its poll ratings on election day, so whether polling numbers translate into seats remains to be seen .